The most expensive habit in amateur golf is aiming at flags. It costs the average 15-handicap about 2 strokes per round. Over a season, that is roughly 1.5 strokes off the handicap.
You can fix it without a single lesson. Here is the data, the reasoning, and the practical change.
What tour pros actually do
The popular belief is that tour pros aim at flags because they are accurate enough to get away with it. The data tells a different story.
Mark Broadie's Strokes Gained research showed that the average tour pro aims for the centre of the green on around 65% of approach shots. Only on short irons (under 130 yards) and from the fairway do they fire at flags more often.
The reason is leverage. The downside of a short-side miss — a chip from greenside rough with no green to work with — is much larger than the upside of a tap-in if the flag shot comes off. The expected stroke value points to the centre of the green.
What this means for amateurs
If a tour pro — who hits 6 iron to a 5-yard target most of the time — is aiming at centres, an amateur should be aiming at centres almost always.
The amateur version: short-siding yourself near the flag costs about 0.7 strokes per occurrence (penalising up-and-down rates around 25-30%). Aiming at the centre and ending up 30 feet away leaves a relatively neutral putt, with a three-putt rate of around 20%. Roughly 0.3 strokes lost.
The math is decisive. Aim at the centre.
Two exceptions
There are two situations where aiming at the flag is correct, even for amateurs:
- Short irons with a flag in the centre or back-centre of the green. No short-side danger. Take dead aim.
- Match play where you need to make a birdie. The expected stroke math changes when the goal is not minimising score but maximising chance of a specific number.
Outside those two, the centre is right.
How to apply this on the course
A short routine on every approach:
- Note the flag position (front, middle, back; left, centre, right)
- Identify the side of the green that punishes a miss most (usually the same side as the flag)
- Aim at a point on the green that is 5-7 yards away from that side, regardless of where the flag is
- Commit. Swing.
The first two or three holes will feel like you are "playing too safe." You are not. You are playing the percentages that PGA Tour pros play.
The connection to the Consistency Score
Aiming at centres drives one specific component of the Consistency Score — fewer doubles, because short-sided chips are the most common path to a double bogey. Over five rounds of disciplined centre-aiming, expect your Scoring component (the 0-34 piece) to climb 3-5 points.
Where to read more
Mark Broadie's Every Shot Counts is the canonical reference for the Strokes Gained framework and the data behind aiming decisions. Worth reading once if you are serious about understanding what the numbers actually say.